The Great Blog of Virginia

I don’t like to throw the words “must win” around lightly, but given our performance against Tech on Sunday and the early season performances by NCSU and FSU (4-1 and 5-1 respectively), we really need to defend our home floor against one of the teams projected to finish in the bottom quarter of the league if we’re going to make some noise this year. This team simply must take care of business against the Georgia Techs, BCs and Wakes of the world with a combined five games left against UNC, NCSU and the Seminoles left on the docket.

We lost both games to BC last year, but that has no impact on tonight: the only things that remain from those Eagles teams are the jerseys and the lackadaisical fan support (hey-o!), as the only returning impact players from those teams are backups Gabe Moton and John Cahill, who combine to score 6.3 points per game. The Eagles are 7-12 (2-3 in conference) with wins over VT and Clemson and some ugly, ugly losses (by 36 to UMass, to Rhode Island, to BU, to Holy Cross).  They’re currently dead last in the ACC in the following categories: points per game (61.7), points per possession (0.91), rebound percentage (44.7), offensive rebound percentage (23.0) and block percentage (5.4). They’re close to last in turnover percentage (second highest),  defensive rebound percentage (10th), assist to turnover ratio (10th), and steal percentage (7.0). They take a lot of threes (21.7 per game) and convert at a low rate (.334), which plays into our hands.  They’ve defended relatively well: BC opponents shoot only .427 from the floor and .336 from three, but they still give up more than a point per possession and don’t force many turnovers.

Tale of the Tape:

Matchups

Point Guard:

I don’t know what I like least about Bub’s last outing:  his 4-12 shooting or his dogged determination to hog all of the fast break glory to himself. I know what I do like, and that was the effort he displayed on the defensive side of the ball. Jordan Daniels — a tiny (5’9”, 153) freshman — starts for BC. He favors the three (60 of his 115 shot attempts, and a .350 success rate) and is decent at taking care of the ball (1.59/1 assist to turnover), which is actually great for this group. Advantage: Virginia

Guard:

Maybe this is the night that Sammy returns to form, now that he’s hopefully vomited out the flu bug that was plaguing him last week and the shooting slump that accompanied it. I hope it is, as the slump has him shooting .194 from the field, .167 from three and scoring just 5.2 points per game. We need him to be our third scorer. Lonnie Jackson loves three pointers (74% of his shot attempts), and he’s hitting them (.430 so far). He doesn’t add a whole lot other than that, though he is averaging three assists over the last four outings (1.2 before that). Advantage: Virginia

Guard/Forward:

Joe Harris has missed some practice with the flu, but I’m hoping he can go, and am going to assume that he is until I hear for sure otherwise. Here’s hoping he’s stayed the hell away from Mike over the last few days.  Joe had an alright game against VPI (10 points, 7 boards — four offensive), but looked uncomfortable moving to the four for large parts of the game and didn’t have his jumper (0-3 from deep). Oregon transfer Matt Humphrey can’t shoot (.328/.615/.276), but he does anyway, leading the team in shot attempts.  He’s yet another Eagle who favors the three, as 56.5% of his shots this season have been from deep. Advantage: Virginia

Forward:

Tech gave the world the blueprint for defending Mike: sandwich him (one defender playing back, one denying the ball) and reduce him to a screening decoy. The result was one of his worst games of the season (10 points, six boards, three turnovers).  Ryan Anderson is one of three Eagles scoring 9.6 points per game. Not a traditional banger (3.1 three point attempts per game at a .254 clip), Anderson still leads BC in rebounding (6.4/game) and can block shots (0.6/game). Advantage: Virginia

Center:

Akil has taken some lumps after what felt like a kind of timid game against VT. I’m looking for a 5-8-2 line tonight, which — while it doesn’t seem like much — would be huge. Seven foot freshman Dennis Clifford leads the Eagles in scoring (9.8/game) and is second in rebounding (at just 5.2, not intimidating given his size). He doesn’t block many shots (0.9/game). Advantage: BC

Bench:

Malcolm is still kind of cold (.309 from the field since Michigan, .250 from three), but he showed an encouraging willingness to put the ball on the floor a couple of times against Tech, which either produced a bucket or free throws. Matchups kept Darion off the floor (six minutes), but he still grabbed four boards and did nothing to make me less stoked about his future. Anything Jesperson gives us is a bonus. BC goes 10 deep, led by freshman Patrick Heckmann (9.6 ppg, 1.8 apg, 3.1 topg). The other four combine for 9.8 points per game, but guards John Cahill (.448) and Gabe Mohon (.400) are dangerous from deep. Advantage: Push

Coach:

Steve Donahue led Cornell to the NCAA Tournament three straight times and took BC to the second round of the NIT last year. He beats Al Skinner. CTB is going to be faced with the puzzle of how to compensate for Assane’s absence every game. Advantage: Virginia

Verdict:

Expect an ugly game, and one that we should win by a decent margin if we can get some shots to drop. Virginia 62, BC 48

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My hate for last night’s game is more aimed at the opponent than the result. We were due for one of “those games,” and I didn’t think we were going to go the rest of the season with only one loss (TCU) in a game that we should have won. This team is going to keep playing sturdy defense, they’ll hit shots again, and they’ll keep making us proud. I just hate that we had to lay our egg last night.

The Hokies deserve a lot of credit for winning that game. They came in with a sound defensive game plan (smother Mike, contest the three) and it translated into yet more bragging rights for the maroon and gold.  Mike could manage only two shots (one of which was a transition dunk) and three turnovers in the second half, and we could hit only one out of our 14 three point attempts (which was by Bub of all people). Some of the misses from the arc can be attributed to just being cold — especially in Sammy’s case, where it’s becoming a chronic and worrisome condition — but Tech did a good job closing out on shooters.  It was the kind of sludgy game you can win if you play smart and take advantage of opportunities given you, but we did neither, turning the ball over frequently (12 times for the game, including some of the forehead smacking dribble out of bounds variety) and missing free throws (6-13 in the second half).

The defense was sound for most of the game, but “most” doesn’t win you a game like last night’s.  Tech made eight straight shots at the end of the first half and beginning of the second, a stretch that saw Jarell Eddie get loose for a couple of threes and the Hokies outscore us 19-10. They only shot .324 over the other 32 minutes, but that eight minute stretch was enough to lose the game for us on a night where we never knew where our next basket was coming from.

Tale of the Tape Revisited:

Notes:

1.) Jontel’s become adept at pushing the tempo at the right time,  but — and it’s a big but — he must stop ignoring his teammates on the break.  Every time he broke out ahead of the pack last night, you could practically see the blinders fall into place as teammates filling lanes and trailing the play could only watch him haplessly get his shot blocked or get fouled (which is also a negative when you consider how he shoots free throws).

2.) The guards have been shooting the ball at a frightening (for us, not for opponents) rate in ACC play: Bub & Sammy are a combined 16-64 (.250) from the field, and .179 (5-28) from three.  The numbers get worse in losses: against Duke and Tech, they shot a combined 4-33 (.121) from the field and hit just one of 14 three point tries.  I can’t wait for Sammy to right the ship, and neither can the team — I feel like I’ve mentioned our tremendous need for a third scorer in every post this season.

3.) The lone positive from last night’s game was Malcolm Brogdon showing a willingness to go to the basket that hasn’t been on display much recently — he converted a driving banker for a three point play in the first half, and got himself to the line in the second — which wasn’t all that bad in his case, as he hit three of four. If his jumper isn’t going, there are worse ways for us to find offense than MB testing the lane.

4.) Akil had what could charitably be called a minimal impact in his first start of the season: two points, one rebound, and one Charles Smith-esque multi-tap attempt at an interior finish  in his 25 minutes.  The matchup didn’t do him many favors, but I still expected more stuffing of the stat sheet with more time on the court.

5.) Darion had four boards in his six minutes — a seemingly small amount of time until you consider that Tech plays four perimeter players and that Mike wasn’t coming off the floor.

BC next. Here’s hoping our guys shake this off and move on. I am, right after I hit publish.

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The Virginia Tech basketball team is currently a bunch of zombies. They’re not what I’d call alive at 0-4, but they’re not quite all the way dead (too early in the season) and they can certainly inflict some damage if you let them get close enough.

Second Google hit for "Virginia Tech zombie." See! There's something to this.

There’s been a fair amount of gloating by Virginia fans over the Hokies’ 0-4 start in conference play, but let’s not get carried away: Tech’s first three losses were by a total of nine points, and they led UNC for most of the first half of what became a 14 point loss. They also led Syracuse at halftime before succumbing to a talent deficit in the second half. This team is not as bad as their record indicates, and they’re the kind of team that can be hard to put away, as they play at a sluggish pace (65.4 possessions per 40, third to last in the ACC), don’t turn it over much (19.4%, sixth in the conference), and hit their threes (36.3%, third in the conference) and free throws (league leading 75.4%). They’re fifth in the ACC in opponent field goal percentage (40.0%), and second in opposing three point percentage (26.3%). What they don’t do well is rebound: Tech is dead last in the ACC in defensive rebound percentage and ninth overall.

Tech’s best wins aren’t much to brag about — it’s probably their two wins over a middling Oklahoma State team. Leading both Syracuse and UNC at the half is probably their most impressive accomplishment. None of their losses are particularly embarrassing, either. We’ve got a sizable advantage in the all-time series, but we’re 3-3 over the last three seasons, winning both last season, losing both the year before, and splitting both games in ’09.

Tale of the Tape:

Matchups

Guard:

Bub played a great all around floor game against Georgia Tech, controlling the tempo, recording five assists (and five rebounds) and making as many buckets as he had in the previous four games combined. Erick Green is Tech’s best player — he leads them in scoring (16.1), assists (3.3), and steals (1.6) and is one of the better one on one defensive guards in the conference. Advantage: VT

Guard: 

It feels like both of these guards have been around since the Clinton administration, as both are fifth year seniors. Sammy got off the schneid against the Yellow Jackets, breaking an 0-10 stretch from three by hitting his last two. I think he’s in good shape — all a shooter needs is for one to drop to know. Dorenzo Hudson is a big (6’5”), athletic slasher — his 4-6 performance from three against UNC was an exception to the rule, as he was only hitting .226 going in and has only hit better than 30% for a season once in his career — who excels at getting to the bucket. He came off the bench against UNC, but vastly outplayed Robert Brown, so I’m calling him a starter. Advantage: VT (unless Brown starts, then call it Sammy). 

Forward:

The water cooler consensus at my office is that games like Joe’s last two (14 points, five boards at Duke, 16/5/3 in Atlanta) are what we’ve come to expect from him. Tech’s athletic Jarell Eddie must be watched when he’s behind the arc (.508 from deep, 61 of his 120 shot attempts) and is a solid rebounder (4.9/game). Defensively, he has a propensity to foul (4.6 fouls/40). Advantage: Virginia

Forward:

I don’t usually love Mike stepping out to the perimeter, but it confounded Brian Gregory’s game plan on Thursday and opened him up for a series of jumpers, so I guess it worked. He’s just so hard to stop right now (if you’re not Mike Krzyzewski, fueled by an army of Plumlees and a solid second half game plan). 6’8” freshman Dorian Finney-Smith is one that got away for CTB. He’s had his moments this season (16 rebounds in the season opener, 14 and 10 in the two games against Oklahoma State), but is 4-19 from the field in ACC play and has missed his last nine shots. Some time in the weight room should be an offseason priority. Advantage: Virginia

Center:

Confession time: I’ve always thought that Victor Davila sucks. He’s not doing much to change my mind with this play this season, as he’s not rebounding at all (his defensive rebound percentage, 13.8, is embarrassing for someone his size) and has seen his minutes cut to 21.3 per game. Now that I’ve posted this about him, he’s going off for 15 and 12 tonight. On our side, I’m anticipating that Akil Mitchell will get his first career start. Akil’s been great on the glass of late, and his passing ability, which has shown flashes this season, will add a dimension to the starting lineup that Assane didn’t bring. Unfortunately, he’s 6’8” instead of 7’0” and doesn’t quite bring the interior thunder or knowledge on D that Assane does. Advantage: Push

Bench:

Real weak point for us right now, with only true freshman to rely on (thanks a lot, KT and Ginger). Brogdon hasn’t been able to buy a basket for so long I’m ready to term this a recession. Darion Atkins is probably ready for the added time he’s going to get as the only backup big, and Paul Jesperson is a roll of the dice every time he enters the game. On the Tech side, they’ve got four guys off the bench that average more than 10 minutes per contest, led by guard Robert Brown (who started against UNC and could be in line to start again). Brown — a 6’5” freshman gunner (74 of his 131 attempts are from deep) — is averaging 8.1 points per game and hitting .338 from three. Another freshman, Marquis Rankin, looks good running the point (1.6/1 assist to turnover ratio), but has had a hard time finding the basket (8-32 on the season). The backup bigs are 6’8” freshman CJ Barksdale (3.4 points, 3.2 boards) and 6’9” sophomore Cadarian Raines (4.6, 4.0, and a block and 0.8 steals for good measure in just 15 minutes per game). Considerable Advantage: VT

Coach:

If you’re asking me which one is better at crying big tears at pretty much every slight (real or imagined) against his team by the officiating crew, I’m picking Greenberg. All that aside, Greenberg’s a fine coach, and has led Tech to more plus .500 ACC finishes in recent years than we have. It’s the ugly truth. I still think CTB is a better in-game strategist and a better recruiter, but I’m biased. Advantage: Virginia

Verdict:

I’m telling you, don’t get cocky. This Tech team resembles us in a lot of ways, has some talent (though it’s young) and can beat us if we come out sluggish. This is not the mismatch that their conference mark and our press clippings of late would lead you to believe. We’ll need to take advantage of their rebounding deficiency (much like we did in Atlanta), cut Green and Hudson off from the lane, and close out on Green, Eddie and Brown around the three point line. I think we take this one in a slugfest, 64-58

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Titus — the founder of Club Trillion, for the uninitiated — has been compiling weekly power rankings for Grantland. This week, we’re #10 — and that placement was made before last night’s showing.

His thoughts:

Write this down, make sure you attribute it to me, laminate it, and then hang it where everyone who visits you will be able to see it: Virginia will make the Sweet 16 this year. I know it’s a little early to be making bold predictions, but I already predicted a Syracuse upset that will almost certainly not happen, so screw it. Besides, I like what I’ve seen from Virginia (especially when they clawed their way back into the game against Duke on Thursday night after it looked like the Blue Devils were going to pull away) and I’m convinced they’ve got what it takes to win two games in the tournament. They’re essentially the Wisconsin team that everyone expected the Buzzcuts to be this year — they have experience, they play well together, they control tempo, they play defense, they’re well coached, they’re fundamentally sound, and they have a superstar who can carry the team. The only difference between Virginia and what we expected from the Buzzcuts is that the Cavaliers aren’t insufferably boring to watch. That’s why I’m putting my neck out there and saying that, barring a serious injury to a key player, Virginia will play in the second weekend of the NCAA tournament this year. Just you watch.

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Assane swore that he’d be doing everything he could to be back Sunday, but it turns out whatever he did wasn’t enough to overcome a fracture. This loss goes beyond the stats: on the surface, one would think that 4.9 points and 3.7 rebounds per game are easily replaceable, but Assane is one of the key cogs to that defense that everyone is raving about and changes opposing shot attempts just by virtue of being on the court throwing those sharp elbows around.

Mike, Akil and Darion will all see upticks in time as a result of this, and Joe will probably have to moonlight at the four again some, a position switch that seemed to wear him down some last year. I think Akil’s ready to shoulder the load, as he’s been a fiend on the glass of late (15.4 boards per 40) and has shown he can handle players a few inches taller, and the only silver lining from this whole thing is that we’ll get to see more of what Darion can do.

Here’s hoping that Assane’s a quick healer — after all, six weeks takes us right up to the end of the regular season and right to the start of the ACC Tournament. I’d love to have him back before that.

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